Las Vegas has Connecticut and Arizona as heavy favorites in their match ups against San Diego State and Clemson.  

UNC is a 4.5 favorite over Alabama and the Iowa State vs Illinois game is a pick em’ as Vegas is giving Iowa State 1.5 spread.  

The analysis I do on these pieces is not designed to select games based on a betting line or for gambling purposes.  Since Las Vegas is leaning heavily towards UCONN and Arizona, and its selecting UNC and giving the last game the toss up status, the focus of this piece will be on what the underdogs and Illinois need to do to pull off the victory.  

Please note that I must twist myself into a pretzel in order to find a pathway to victory for these games. 

Clemson

Clemson started the season winning nine games in a row but since December 9^th, Clemson has won three games in a row twice.  To advance to the elite eight Clemson will have to win accomplish the rare task of winning three-games in a row.  

Clemson has a defensive rating of 103.45 which means that Clemson is giving over 1 point per possession which is not good.  

Clemson is offensive oriented but does not play at the pace that Arizona plays at.  Playing an up and down game is a scary proposition but there may be a benefit if Clemson’s offense is scoring against Arizona’s defense. The concern however is that its fools gold and short term success will give a false sense of reality and once in the trap, Clemson will not be able to realize that the tempo is running them out of the game if the scoring well dries up.

The pathways to victory for Clemson are few and the biggest concern for Clemson is their rebound rate. Clemson has a rebound rate of 26% which is average.  For Clemson to stand a chance they must keep Arizona off the glass which has a rebound rate of 36%

Clemson must score against Arizona’s defense.  When teams score on Arizona the counter for Arizona is to be aggressive on defense and get handsy.  

Arizona grabs and holds off the ball and applies pressure on the ball.  They turn to a 1-2-2 three-quarter court press.  The press is not aggressive and is designed to slow you down and use up the shot clock before getting into your set. 

Once a team breaks the press, Arizona tightens up on the help side and challenges the passing lane by making it difficult for defenders to break free.  Arizona does not deny the passing lanes in a traditional sense, but they use their hands to make it difficult to break free.  

Clemson must handle Arizona’s aggression and not get caught up with lack of offensive calls.  Arizona’s aggression is designed to  see if referees will tighten the game and  disrupt the flow of the game with their whistles.  If the referees allow players to play through the physicality,  Arizona will amplify the grabbing and holding making it difficult to run offense.  

The key to dealing with Arizona’s defense is PJ Hall.  At 6’10”, PJ Hall is a problem for Arizona because of his diversity.  Hall attempts 4.6 three-point shots a game and shoots the three-point shot at 32%.  Hall’s shooting ability can put Oumar Ballo in a bind and if Hall makes a few three-point shots, Clemson can set the setting for an upset.  Hall can open the floor for Clemson’s guard but most importantly the strategy has to be to attack Oumar Ballo.  

Defensively, Clemson must handle the middle on ball screen action and the high-lo action with Oumar Ballo. Arizona uses Oumar Ballo to set middle on ball screen as Arizona players rise from the baseline and loop into a hand-off action or middle PnR.  The goal is to create a switch putting a smaller player on Ballo who rolls to the basket and pins the defender allowing for a high pass from the top of the key. 

Teams try to defend the middle on ball screen by playing drop coverage, but Arizona guards are good at turning the corner and getting downhill and placing the drop defender in a 2-on-1 situation.  

Ballo rolls on the weakside and if the defender steps up to stop the ball, the backside is open for a lob.  If the defender tries to play in and out of the lane, Arizona has experienced guards and wings who can handle the cat and mouse game and get to the rim and finish.  

Blitzing the PnR and pushing the ball up and away from the basket is a better option than drop coverage. Arizona averages 23.9 points a game from the three-point line and has an effective field goal percentage of 55%.  Blitzing the PnR means that Arizona can catch weakside defenders in rotations as the wing defenders come in to tag Ballo as he rolls to the basket.  Blitzing opens the wings and Arizona can knock down the three-point shot.  

Another option is the man defending Ballo jamming Ballo and the on-ball defender going under the screen in a race to the opposite elbow.  Jamming the screener is an old Michigan State strategy where you push up on the man setting the screen with the man that is guarding him. Pushing up keeps the screener from moving down and picking off the man guarding the ball and you can also push the man up if you can leverage by getting underneath him and disrupt the driving lane for the man with the ball.

This opens the three-point shot from the top of the key which is a problem if Arizona is making three-point shots but a mix in coverage from time to time can also mean that Arizona misreads the coverage and Clemson can steal defensive possessions.  Such a strategy might proof fruitful if the referee’s permit physicality.

It was not long ago that Wisconsin beat Arizona in an NCAA tournament when Bo Ryan had the defense go underneath the on-ball screen but the game has changed and three-point shooting percentages have forced teams to depend on drop coverage and blitzing as the preferred strategy. In the end however, these are young men and the pressure of the situation gets to college players. Going underneath and staying in front of the ball may put enough pressure on Arizona to pull off the upset if Arizona is not having a great shooting night.

Playing a zone is not advisable. Arizona is too good at moving the ball and has seen enough zone since their road game at Utah.  

Attacking Ballo with your offense can get Ballo in foul trouble or force Arizona to find a better match-up to defend Clemson.  

Without Ballo on the floor, Arizona’s continuity offense is different.  If Ballo remains on the floor, Arizona will go to him on the low block.  Doubling Ballo in the post is not worth the risk of giving Arizona open three-point shots.  It is best to play Ballo straight up, stay with the guards on the perimeter and if Ballo scores, so be it.  Priority must be placed on rebounding and making sure that the Clemson defense limits its scramble situations.  

Stay in front of Arizona and force them to make tough shots.  Such a strategy is easier said than done and its dependent on Clemson scoring on Arizona but if Clemson cannot defend the middle ball screen and take advantage of Ballo on offense, a pathway to victory is not in the cards.  

San Diego State

The Aztecs are a known brand and have an identity and a style that is anchored by its defense, but San Diego States defense and toughness alone will not be enough to beat UCONN.  

San Diego State has lacked consistency.  An example of the lack of consistency is the Aztecs second leading scorer (Reese Dixon-Waters) was a starter for 26 games until Jay Pal replaced Waters on February 16. 

The key for San Diego State is the offense.  San Diego State traditionally has a good defense, but this year’s defense is not as efficient as last year.  UCONN can score on anybody in the nation and the question is can San Diego State’s offense keep up with UCONN? 

Jaedon Ledee will be handful for Clingman, but Clingman’s height could wear Ledee down if the Aztec guards do not match the play of the Connecticut guards.  

Lamont Butler has been steady, but San Diego State will need heavy contributions from the other guards. Dixon-Waters could be key, especially if he has a performance like he did at Gonzaga.  Scoring from the guard positions has come from Darrion Trammell and Lamont Butler but Dixon-Waters scoring has dropped, and Jay Pal provides the Aztecs defense and not much offense.  

The Aztecs athleticism and their aggression helps San Diego State get to the free-throw line.  San Diego State has a free-throw rate of 28% which is elite and that will be key in attacking Connecticut.  San Diego State needs to get to the free-throw line, and they will need to shoot above their 50% eFG average.  

The key for San Diego State is offense which is not what San Diego State hangs their hat on.  San Diego State needs big performances from Ledee , Butler and Trammell but they also need a fourth scorer to step in with a big contribution.  

Alabama

UNC being a 4.5 favorite over Alabama is surprising given how bad Alabama’s defense is.  Alabama has a defensive rating average of 106.56 and UNC has a defensive rating average of 97.3.  

UNC has an eFG of 52% and Alabama has an eFG of 57%.  

Alabama plays at a pace of 73.17

UNC plays at a pace of 70.49.

Alabama does a good job at challenging three-point shots.

Opponents shoot the three-point shot at 31.72% against Alabama.  Defending the three-point line and clearing the defensive possession with a rebound are necessary for Alabama to win the game.  Alabama cannot allow Bacot to give UNC multiple possessions with his offensive rebounding.  

The game between Alabama and UNC will be a track meet.  The styles are similar and one of the major concerns is that in wanting to run and push the ball, Alabama might give control of the game away. UNC’S  RJ Davis is too good of a guard to be overwhelmed by a frenetic pace.  

It feels like Alabama is playing into UNC’s hands.  The SEC has been exposed in the NCAA tournament and one of the major flaws for the SEC in the tournament has been defensive performances by SEC teams.  The concern is that Alabama’s offensive numbers are inflated by fraudulent SEC defenses.  

Nate Oats is not one to shy away from this type of game and his philosophy and analytics driven methodology sees no other way forward but to push forward and stick with the style that brought Alabama to the dance.  RJ Davis is not likely to give control away, but perhaps other UNC guards might.  

Alabama’s only path to victory is to shoot the lights out and apply pressure on UNC’s offense.  This game looks to be a sprint and aside from shooting the ball well, Alabama must attack the glass on defense and finish the defensive possession with the rebound.  

Illinois

Great offense versus great defense.  Illinois must deal with Iowa States defense for 40 minutes but as of late, Iowa State’s offense has been a playing just as well as the defense. 

The figure illustrates the gap being created by Iowa States offense and defense to end the season.  The defense has had an upward trajectory in the NCAA Tournament and Illinois offense is going to bring up Iowa States defensive rating.  

The key figure for Illinois offense is Terrence Shannon.  Shannon has scored 30 points in three out of the five last games.  Shannon may need to drop 40 on Iowa State to beat them but 40 points may not be enough if Iowa State is able to keep Marcus Domask in check.  

Coleman Hawkins shot the three-ball well against Morehead State and Duquesne and he will need to hit a couple of threes to beat Illinois.

The game should be decided by the side of the ball that is the strength for Illinois and Iowa State.  Illinois offense versus Iowa State defense.  

The wildcard however belongs to Iowa State’s offense.  Illinois offense must raise its game if Iowa State’s offense performs like it has the last five games.  The key to Iowa States offense has been its turnover rate which was elite in the BIG-12 tournament against Kansas State and Baylor and in the NCAA tournament against Washington State.  

The tournament is about great individual performances and Terrence Shannon may need to provide the performance of a lifetime in order to move Illinois past Iowa State and into the Elite Eight.