Kentucky went into Knoxville and Tennessee three-point shooting aided Kentucky to a 78-73 win.
Tennessee cut the lead to a single possession and then went cold from the three-point line. Igor Milicic lead the Vols with 19 points, 9 rebounds and 4 assists. Zakai Zeigler led the Vols with 6 assists and contributed 13 points but was 1-11 from the three-point line.
Milici shot 50% from three (4-8) but did not get the necessary touches down the stretch to lift Tennessee past Kentucky.
The questions at hand are, 1. what should a team do when they have gone cold from the three-point line? 2. Why did Tennessee fail to get Milicic touches and shots with under two minutes to play?
Assessing the questions through analytics and non-analytics perspective
Data analytics has studied the ability to predict if a cold streak and how to get out of a cold streak if it does take place. There is no data that can help predict when a cold streak can happen and thus it puts into question if a cold streak is real. Teams go on shooting slump but a slump takes into consideration the whole picture. A shooting slump is measured by the overall percentage and counts misses and makes, whereas a streak is a continuous number of missed shots.
Each shot has its own percentage of going in based on the shooters shooting percentage, preference of shot location, proximity of the defender. Because each shot is impacted by other metrics, the idea of a bad shooting streak is a random occurrence due to the independent and dependent factors that occur in each individual shot.
Nevertheless, Tennessee went cold and failed to make a three-point shot and decided to continue shooting three’s instead of other shots.
During my time at Pepperdine, Vance Walberg believed in the concept of a streak. A streak was not defined as a series of missed shots being strung together. A streak had a more holistic definition which is more on par with a shooting slump. When there was a shooting slump, a “streak” call was made which limited the players who were allowed to shoot three-point shots.
The goal was to be less dependent on the three-point shot and to attack the rim and generate points in the paint or at the free-throw line.
The concept to a “streak” call is not new. It is common for coaches to impose pass criteria before a shot is taken. Pass criteria is more common in practice than in games. The goal of pass criteria is that the ball needs to be moved from player to player a number of times before a shot can be taken. Coaches that impose a pass criteria, believe in the psychological impact it has on players in terms of increasing morale because they touched the ball. Coaches also believe that ball movement will wear a defense down and force the defense to make a mistake that will lead to a high percentage shot.
The math
Analytics and the expected value of a three-point shot answers question 1 by utilizing math. The desired percentage is 33% and the only Volunteer player with a shooting percentage above 33% was Milicic. All other Volunteers were below the 33% standard.
It is difficult to answer question number 2 through an analytics lens given that Milicic is the only player shooting at or above 33% in the game. Analytics could answer the question if we take season three-point shooting averages.
Zakai Zeigler has a three-point average of 27%.
Chas Lanier has a three-point average of 47%.
Jordan Gainey shoots the three at 33% and Darlinstone Dubar shoots the three-pointer at 26.3%.
The shooting averages do not support Zakai Zeigler taking 11 three point shots or Darlinstone Dubar shooting 7 long range shots.
Igor Milicic has a three point average of 28.4% which provides an explanation why Tennessee did not give Milicic the ball despite Milicic shooting 4-8 against Kentucky. The explanation being that Milicic does not meet the 33% standard.
Answering the questions through a non-analytics lens
The application of a streak or the philosophy of a passing criteria answers questions 1 and 2 because it de-emphasizes the three-point shot and it also moves the ball so that Milicic gets touches.
The “streak” application would identify Milicic as a streaker against Kentucky and he would be the only player with the green light to shoot a three with under two minutes left to play.
Zeigler is a good point guard and the failure of the night for both Zeigler and the coaching staff was being unable to identify what the priority was and to impose limitations on Zeigler’s shooting down the stretch. Zeigler’s three-point shots were off and had no chance of going in based on the trajectory and the location of the ball when it hit the rim.
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