The three point shot has changed basketball. The face value of the shot is greater than any other shot and because it has a greater value, you can shoot the shot at a lower percentage and out math your opponent and win.

Steph Curry and Klay Thompson’s ability to hit shots from anywhere on the floor means that defenses have to extend to guard them.

Making 21 three point shots to 6 is enough to win most games but that was not the case in Game 1 of the second round playoff series between the Los Angeles Lakers and the Golden State Warriors.

Lakers Strategy Against Thompson and Curry

Los Angeles shadowed and denied Steph Curry and Klay Thompson and sagged off every other Warriors player.

Laker center Anthony Davis clogged the paint with his length and athleticism. Dribble drives and backdoors were funneled to Davis who turned the action away, stopped the action from taking place or blocked attempted shots.

Curry and Thompson fought and clawed to get open. At times the Golden State offense had Curry and Thompson start at the corner and the Lakers bottled their ability to get out of the corner by using the sideline and baseline as a defender and placing the man guarding Curry and Thompson above them like a soda bottle fighting the foam from rising to the top.

Figure 1 is the Warriors distribution of three point attempts for the 2022–2023 NBA season. The blue line marks the mean. In game 1, Golden State attempted 53 three point shots. You can compare where game 1 three point attempts fall on the density plot.

The Warriors have taken more than 53 three point attempts in the regular season but it was not a common occurance.

In the 2023 NBA Playoffs the Warriors have shot 50 or more three point attempts three times. The Warriors only won one of those three games.

Golden State shot 39% from the three point line despite shooting such a high volume. The expected point value for every three point shot taken was 1.17 points per possessions.

How Did The Lakers Win Game 1?

The key to the Lakers victory was the free throw line.

Los Angeles attacked the paint. The Lakers shot 55% from two point range going 37 for 67 but the key for the Lakers was the free throw line.

Los Angeles shot 86% from the free throw line and took 29 free throws in game 1.

Figure three allows us to compare game 1 free throw attempts with the regular season. 29 free throw attempts is above the mean which is demarcated by the gold line in the plot.

According to the bar plot in figure 4, game one is the second highest free throw attempt game for the Lakers of the 2023 NBA playoffs

If we make 25 free throw attempts the cut off, the Lakers have shot 25 or more free throw attempts three times in the 2023 NBA playoffs.

Impact of 29 Free Throw Attempts On A Basketball Game

Getting to the free throw line at such a high rate punishes the defense. The defense is under assault by the offense and such a heavy assault wears out your defenders. There is the physical toll the defense pays from having players like LeBron James and Anthony Davis.

There is also the issue of foul trouble. Key players run the risk of picking up too many fouls which puts them on the bench to keep them in the game. This is the equivalent of making a team bleed to death. Small cut after small cut accumulating more damage and hindering a teams ability to defend itself.

Another effect is the expected value free throws have compared to every other shot on the court.

Expected value is the value per possession. Teams shot two point, three point shots and free throws but they don’t always make them. A two point shot is worth two points if you make it but what is the worth of shooting a two point shot if you make it 50% of the time? The answer is expected value or point per possession.

Free throws have the highest point expected value because they are shot at such a high percentage. The Lakers free throw percentage in game 1 was 86 percent for an expected point value of 1.78 points per possession. Compared to 55 percent from two point range and 39 percent from three point range, the respective point value is 1.10 for 55 percent from two point range and 1.17 points per possession for 39 percent from three.

Shooting a high number of free throws allows your players to rest. The process of shooting free throws slows the game down. Players are subbed in and subbed out. Any issues that took place during the game are addressed during the stoppage of time. These little moments are important for a player like Anthony Davis and LeBron James who played 43 and 40 minutes in game 1.

Significance of Lakers Victory

The significance of the lakers victory from a playoff perspective is that the pressure of game two is on Golden State. Golden State can not afford to go down two games to none in the series.

From an analytics perspective, the significance of the Lakers victory means that there is a path for victory if you are outshot from behind the arc. The ability to get to the free-throw line with high frequency does create a path towards victory in games where you do not shoot a lot of threes and don’t shoot well from behind the line.

The question is, are the Lakers likely to continue clogging the lane and force Golden State to be heavily dependent on the three point shot or is Golden State more likely to clog the lane and prevent the Lakers from shooting a high number of free throws? The answer to this question will likely determine the series.

How Can Golden State Keep The Lakers Away From The Free Throw Line?

Based off game 1 the defensive strategy that worked late in the game was a zone. Golden State went to a zone in the fourth quarter and the Lakers settled for jump shots and were not as aggressive in getting paint touches.

Game film on the Warriors zone will give the Lakers the opportunity to game plan against the zone in game 2.

The Warriors may put in different zones to throw at the Lakers in short spurts to discombobulate the Lakers and stall their offense.

Curry With The Ball

In Game 2 or as the series unfolds, putting the ball in Steph Curry’s hands and allowing him to use the dribble will put pressure on the Lakers defense and make it more difficult to deny Curry the ball.

In the clip the ball is in Curry’s hands as he breaks down the Lakers defense with the dribble. The outcome of the play was a block by Anthony Davis but there are options available to Curry that the Warriors will see as solutions to how Davis is playing defense and the Lakers heavy deny of Curry and Thompson.

As Curry breaks down the defense with the dribble, he gets by his man and has him on his back hip.

A trailing defender cannot deny Curry from getting the ball if he passes and tries to get it back.

I did not point this out in the video but Davis drop coverage gives Curry the 15 foot pull up jump shot. Curry can get by his man and hit the midrange shot which will eventually force Davis to come up to contest the shot. Once Davis commits to stepping up, Curry can play a cat and mouse game with Davis and force him to work and use energy instead of resting in the paint.

Curry with the ball draws more eyes from the defense and that can make Klay Thompson’s job easier off the ball.

In the clip the corner is open and Thompson is cutting through the paint with his man trailing. Curry attacking with the dribble will force the defense to step up and Thompson can use the defenders to rub his man off.

It also prevents the defenders from focusing on Thompson as he cuts and bumping him to slow him down and allow his defender to stay attached to Thompson’s outside hip.

The other options are to kick the ball out to Poole or to skip the ball to the opposite corner to Wiggins.

Curry can pop back out and Poole can hit Curry. Poole can back door or play a two man game with Curry because of the space they have up top.

On the skip to Wiggins, Poole can fill the open space on the opposite lane line and cut behind Schroeder who has his back to him. Wiggins can hit Poole for the three if Schroeder gets lost. Wiggins can also drive to the basket going middle and see what happens with Poole and Curry and their off ball movement.

The action in this clip is a few possessions before the Davis block on Curry.

We see the same action in this clip but instead of shooting it over Davis, Curry passes the ball to Green who passes the ball back when he pops out for the three.

Attention is drawn to Russell because he relaxes and becomes disengaged when he begs the refs for a call.

The defensive counter is to blitz and double Curry and get the ball out of his hands earlier and higher on the court. If the Lakers double the ball, the men doubling have to communicate to stick with Curry because he will cut and move to get the ball back.

How To Defend The Warriors in Transition

The Lakers transition defense is a weakness for the Lakers. Golden State hurt the Lakers in transition by finding three point shooters.

The first step to defending the Warriors transition offense is identifying who is running the lanes. Jordan Poole is ahead of the action and he is picked up by Reaves.

The two threats on the court are Curry with the ball and Thompson filling in on the right side of the floor.

Schroeder is squared up to Curry and that makes it easy for Green to screen him on his left side, allowing Curry to dribble towards Thompson.

When Curry has the ball the intent has to try and force him away from Thompson and towards the other lane.

Anthony Davis should fan out more towards Thompson so that he is on him and hugging him preventing the pass to Thompson.

LeBron James should not be concerned with the man running the left lane but instead should shade more towards the middle to pick up Curry if he gets by Schroeder and to protect the paint.

The trailing Laker is in good position to challenge a shot if Curry passes the ball to the left lane.

The Lakers should want the ball to go to whoever is filling the opposite lane of Thompson as long as it’s not Curry.

What if Thompson and Curry are Filling Both Lanes?

I don’t have a clip to demonstrate but I will use the alignment in the clip above to describe what should be done.

If Curry and Thompson are filling the left and right lane then Davis and LeBron or whoever is in the position of Davis and LeBron in the clip above, should fan out so that they are both opposite of one another and on the lanes where Curry and Thompson are running. By fanning out they are opening the middle and that is fine. Their job is to stay wide and prevent the pass to Thompson or Curry.

Schroeder-or whoever is a position to stop the ball like Schroeder is in the clip above-has to retreat to the three point line if it’s Poole with the ball going down the middle or retreat to the rim if it’s anyone else.

Stopping the ball is not the biggest threat if it’s anyone besides Curry with the ball. By retreating and giving ground, the man with the ball has to keep his dribble alive and can not pass the ball ahead. The pass is faster than the dribble and by forcing the man in the middle to keep the ball with the dribble for as long as possible, you are allowing for trailing teammates to catch up and defend.

The key is hugging Curry and Thompson if they are both occupying the lanes and forget about the middle.

Supporting Cast

There are two key matchups outside of the big names that will impact the outcome of the series. Schroeder is not included in this section but as the series unfolds, we might have to change the tables or include Schroeder.

Russell versus Poole reflects the theme of game 1.

D’Angelo Russell was most effective shooting the midrange. Russell’s 19 points were important and he did a lot of his damage in the third quarter.

Jordan Poole made six threes in game 1 and shot 54% from the three point line.

Jordan Poole’s shot selection can is questionable at times but he is a threat for the Warriors and could hurt the Lakers because he has space coming off screens with Anthony Davis camped out in the key.

Golden State and Los Angeles will need both players to continue hitting shots if the series follows the same pattern as game 1.

Wiggins can be the x-factor for the Warriors as he continues to get back in shape after not playing for a few months due to a personal reason. Wiggins was sensational last year in the finals and helped the Warriors win a championship.

Austin Reaves is talented. He has the ability to hit outside shots and can break defenders down with the dribble. In game 1, Reaves defense and his ability to dissect plays was key in helping defend Thompson and Curry when they were off the ball.

Reaves has scoring ability but in game 1 his usage rate was 9.9%. Plays were not called for him as the action was intended to go to Davis but Reaves was efficient with his shot. It would not be surprising to see Reaves hit big shots and be part of big moments like Robert Horry.