The Sacramento Kings find themselves on the brink of elimination after starting out with a two games to none lead against the Golden State Warriors. Sacramento plays at Golden State tonight at 5:00 PM PT. Sacramento has to win or go home.
Free-throw rate measures free-throw attempts versus field goal attempts. It is an efficiency metric that measures aggression and the ability to get to the free-throw line.
In Games 1,2 and 3 Sacramento won the free-throw rate battle and got to the free-throw line more often in proportion to their shots. There is a decline after game one and as Sacramento left the confines of their home court to play at Golden State Warriors, Sacramento head coach Mike Brown relayed the following message to his team:
Sacramento finished game 3 with a higher free-throw rate than Golden State.
Mike Brown’s message manifested itself in the following way in Game 3. Sacramento took a series high 47 three-point shots according to figure 2. Sacramento Kings players did not expect to get favorable calls from the referees and settled for three-point shots. Golden State won game 3.
Game 4 was a one possession game and Sacramento lost the game by missing a wide open three-point shot at the buzzer.
Sacramento took less three-point shots than game three in game four. In Game 4 however, free-throw rate flipped and Golden State had a higher free-throw rate than Sacramento. More free-throw attempts for Sacramento and perhaps they pull off the win in Game 4.
In Game 5, Sacramento started off hot from the three point line shooting 61% to end the 1st quarter.
In the second quarter, Sacramento cooled off and the percentage dropped to 38%.
The hot start made Sacramento trigger happy from behind the three-point line and they finished the 1st half with 21 three point attempts. In the second half, Sacramento was more aggressive but their three-point shooting in the 2nd quarter opened the door for Golden State and they never looked back.
Klay Thomposon took over for Golden State in the second quarter of Game 5. Sacramento went 0–9 from the three-point line whileKlay Thompson shot .667% from three in the second quarter going 3 for 5. Klay Thompson’s offensive performance flipped the game. Golden State took the lead and was able to fend off Sacramento the rest of the game.
The battle between Steph Curry and De’Aaron Fox has been sensational. De’Aaron Fox has held his own and at times outplayed the future Hall of Famer. Figure 4 breaks down the fight between the two.
Steph Curry has outshot De’Aaron Fox but De’Aron Fox has countered by generating more scoring plays for his teammates than Curry.
Fox has gotten to the free-throw line at a more efficient rate than Curry. De’Aaron Fox’s ability to get to the free-throw line was a key factor in the Kings win in Game 1.
The tale of the tape comes down to two interconnected variables: Offensive Rating and Turnovers. These two variables have the same pattern. The player with the higher offensive rating and lower turn over and turn over rate has won every game. De’Aaron Fox has won this battle twice. Steph Curry has won it three times. Golden State leads the series 3–2.
Conclusion
The pathway for Sacramento is through De’Aron Fox. Fox is playing with a broken finger in his shooting hand. Sacramento needs him to continue playing at a high rate but he also needs to win the turnover battle against Curry.
Fox is not going to out shoot Curry but Fox can control his turnovers. Having less turnovers than Curry will generate more shots for the Kings.
The kings have to be selective with their shot selection and not get caught up with launching three’s at a high clip. Attacking the rim , managing three-point attempts and Fox winning the turn over battle are all elements that the Sacramento Kings can control. If they do not, they need to make vacation plans.
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