SERIES RECAP
At the end of Game 1, Los Angeles and the media believed they had a solution for how to stop Nikola Jokic and take care of the Denver Nuggets in the Western Conference Finals.
After three games, the Lakers face the possibility of getting swept and losing the first four games of a seven game series against the Nuggets.
The solution to Jokic was to put Rui Hachimura on Jokic which would allow Anthony Davis to roam and protect the paint from behind Hachimura by blocking shots and intimidating the Denver Nuggets.
In game 2, Los Angeles controlled the game until the fourth quarter. The Laker strategy began to fall apart in the third quarter but in the 4th quarter is when Los Angeles found itself naked and completely exposed as Denver scored 32 points in the quarter and defeated the Lakers 108–103.
Laker-land felt good about itself and it’s ability to come back from a 2 game to none deficit once Los Angeles left the mile high city and played at the staples center…I mean crypto whatever arena(it should always be the staples center but whatever).
Denver took the crowd out of the game early in game 3 or the crowd was never in it as there was an eerie silence in the arena at tip off.
Jamal Murray dropped 30 points on the Lakers in the first half and Denver built a 12 point lead to end the first quarter. Los Angeles fought back and the game was close until Denver put Los Angeles away in the fourth quarter.
Denver has Los Angeles pinned by neck with it’s boot and needs to apply pressure to suffocate the Lakers and take them out of their misery but Los Angeles does have a way of slapping away Denver’s foot and being able to fight back.
The Solution
There are three solutions for the Lakers to get back in the series but the main problem Los Angeles has to do is solve is its terrible transition defense.
Language escapes me because calling the Lakers transition defense terrible, is not a harsh enough descriptive term.
The Lakers fail to do the basic fundamentals in their transition defense. They fail to assign safety responsibility to a player. The purpose of a safety is to automatically get back on defense whenever as shot is taken.
Los Angeles also fails to assign alternate safety responsibility for whenever the man who is the safety shoots the ball. The man who has safety responsibility should not have to get back on defense when they shoot the ball.
Playoff opponents have burned the Lakers because there is no one back on defense when Los Angeles takes a shot and teams get easy layups and dunks.
The other major problem with the Laker transition defense is stopping the ball. Denver players get a rebound or a steal and dribble the entire court for layups and dunks. No one stops them. No one gets in their way and keeps them from traveling in a straight line. No one fouls them to make sure they don’t score an easy two points.
During the playoffs, the Lakers transition defense has been discussed in this blog. It was first discussed in this article: Lakers vs Warriors: styles make fights and what we will see in game 2 and beyond
Golden State ran an unconventional transition offense. Golden State wanted to shoot three point shots and in the article we discussed how the Lakers should fan out to stop Klay Thompson from shooting open transition three point shots. There was also an emphasis on who has the responsibility to stop the ball. The strategy we mentioned is unconventional but something the team I coached ran when we wanted to play up tempo and play with organized chaos.
Denver runs a more traditional fast break. Denver attacks the rim with the exception of Porter who wants to spot up to shoot the three point shot. To stop the Nuggets transition all you need to do is use traditional fast break principles. Nothing fancy. Nothing exotic.
The Lakers also need to have pride in their transition defense. It’s frustrating to see such a talented team struggle with transition defense because they are disorganized, lack urgency and suck at communicating with each other.
These are all fixable flaws but for whatever reason, the Lakers absolutely suck and appear to not be able to come up with a solution with something as basic as getting back on defense and stopping the ball.
It has also been frustrating to see former players and so called “analysts” make statements like the one above despite the Lakers inability to fix its god damn transition defense.
The Laker half court defense has been impressive and Denver found solutions to what the Lakers want to do to them in game 3 but the reason why the Lakers lost game 1 and game 2 was the Lakers transition defense.
In game 1, Denver built a wide cushion solely on pushing the ball and beating the Lakers down the court. How the Laker coaching staff was not prepared for Denver’s desire to play up tempo is baffling.
In game 2, Los Angeles came out swinging and had Denver on the ropes but Denver found life and managed to stay in the game because of their transition offense.
I just do not understand how you can have such a good half court defense and not do the one thing you need to do to force the opposing team to go up against your half court defense.
How can the Lakers coaching staff and LeBron James and Anthony Davis continue to allow this problem plague them?
LeBron’s Three Point Shooting
The national media is catching on to LeBron James woeful three point shooting in the playoffs.
Here are ESPN “analysts” discussing LeBron’s three point shooting.
In the blog we have tracked LeBron’s three point shooting.
The line plot in figure 1 is from the Warriors series. At his lowest point, LeBron was averaging 20% from the behind the arc in the Warriors series.
At the end of the series, LeBron worked his way back to 29%.
Against Denver, LeBron has struggled.
In games 1 and 2, LeBron James failed to make a three point shot. LeBron James three point percentage dropped from 29% to 25% according to the data from basketball-reference.com.
In game 3, LeBron shot 3 for 9 from the three point line. LeBron’s 33% from three translated to a value of 1 point per possession for every three point shot taken. 1 point expected value is acceptable but the problem is that for the playoffs the expected value is .75 points per three point shot.
The highest yellow bars in figure four are from game 6 against the Warriors and Game 1 against Denver. The gap between game 6 and game 1 signifies days between each game which are days that LeBron can use to recuperate, do treatment and rest.
LeBron attacked the Warriors and Denver defense. Late in the fourth quarter of game 1, Los Angeles was down three points and LeBron James found himself open from the three point line. James took the shot and missed.
The problem with LeBron James attacking as much as he did in game 1 is the gap between games 1 and 2 is much less than the gap between game 6 and game 1. James had one day in between game 1 and game 2 to recuperate.
In game 2, LeBron went 0–4 again and the media started to point at James three point shooting as a problem.
The nine three point attempts in game 3 are seen as shots in which LeBron James let the Denver Nuggets off the hook despite shooting 33% in game 3.
The focus on LeBron’s three point shooting in this blog was due to the free throw disparity that the Lakers have over their opponents. LeBron James free throw attempts are down in the playoffs from the regular season. LeBron James two point attempts were down in the playoffs from the regular season and his three point shooting increased in the playoffs from the regular season.
In thinking of possible strategies to defend the Lakers and keeping them from the free throw line, attention was placed on the three point shooting as a means of giving James space and building a buffer or a wall to try and decrease the Lakers free throw attempts.
LeBron James three point shooting is a problem for the Lakers but the problem is highlighted because of the Lakers horrific transition defense.
If we look at the line plots we see that James is capable of having games where he shoots a good percentage from three but the good percentage is offset by the number of games where he shots below 20%.
At no point should LeBron consider not shooting a three point shot. That’s just stupid. It’s stupid because LeBron’s greatness still scares teams. Teams respect his ability and will react or over react the moment he starts making three point shots.
Denver will close out hard. They will try and take away his space and that will open the driving lane. LeBron James also deserves to take a few three point shots if he is attacking the rim the way he did in game 6 and game 1.
A violin chart is like a density plot with the difference being that it provides a visual representation of the data in subgroups. The yellow dot in each violin plot is the mean for LeBron James three point percentage in that series.
The distribution of the data is important because the high points in each violin represent the fear each team has of LeBron finding his shot.
The averages are not good but the outliers have a psychological affect on coaches and players.
The Lakers narrow margin of victory is being linked to LeBron James bad three point shooting but what is being ignored is the woeful Laker transition defense.
Los Angeles would give itself a higher margin of error if it’s trash transition defense was not disposable waste. LeBron James 0–4 in games 1 and 2 could be absorbed and Los Angeles could have a 2–1 lead if the transition defense did not suck as bad as it does.
LeBron should not seek to shoot 9 threes unless he hits his first five but taking three to four three point shots a game should not kill the Lakers if the Laker transition defense was not feces.
Put The Ball In Austin Reaves Hands
One of the players we tracked for the Lakers in the series against the Warriors was Austin Reaves.
Against the Warriors, Reaves performance kept improving as he became more aggressive.
Reaves is averaging over 20 points a game in the series against Denver but despite his point output, Reaves is not getting the ball enough in his hands with the ability to attack off the dribble.
In Game 2, Reaves had one free throw attempt. Reaves had 22 points in game 2 but Laker head coach Darvin Ham decided to put the ball in D’Angelo Russells hands and put him in pick and roll situations instead of increasing Reave’s use in the PnR.
There is a major drop off in LeBron Jame free throw attempts from game 1 to game 2. We talked about the decreased space between the barplots and how they siginfied a decrease in recovery time and rest for LeBron James. We also dedicated the article Vintage LeBron James: Violent Attack On The Warriors Defense In Game 6 to how rare it has been to see LeBron James attack the rim the way he did in game 6. In the article there was the question if LeBron James could consistently keep attacking the way he did in game 6.
Aside from Anthony Davis the other Los Angeles Laker who could get to the free throw line like LeBron James did in games 6 and game 1 is Austin Reaves. Reaves is a very skilled ball handler, with vision and aggression. The decision to not use Reaves in the PnR and to go with Russell prevented the Lakers from making Denver bleed at the free throw line.
When LeBron James is not attacking, Austin Reaves should be. Reaves should be heavily involved in the PnR with Anthony Davis and with LeBron James. He should not just be the screener but the primary ball handler.
Los Angeles should hunt Jamal Murray on the PnR with James and Reaves. They should attack him and make him play defense as well as having to handle the ball for the Denver Nuggets. If Los Angeles can not get him in foul trouble than they should wear out his legs by forcing him to be involved in as much action as possible when he is on defense.
Tired legs miss shots and Reaves can attack Murray in ways that D’angelo Russell can not.
In the last five games, Reaves lowest three point percentage has been .500. Placing the ball in Reaves hands on the pick and roll will force the Nuggets to fight over the screen and that will open up the lane and allow him to get downhill and to the rim or the free throw line. If Denver goes underneath, Reaves can shoot the three off the bounce. Reaves is also a good passer and can find open teammates on dribble penetration.
Reaves aggression however has benefitted the Lakers and putting the ball in his hands will give the Lakers a second offensive players that can attack the defense like a knife and gash it by getting to the free throw line and will also allow James to rest by not having to always be the one attacking the rim with the dribble.
CONCLUSION
Los Angeles margin of error is small because they have to win four games in a row and that is something that has not been done but there is a pathway to victory and to turning the western conference finals into a fight and it begins with Los Angeles ability to stop the ball in transition and keeping them from scoring easy buckets.
Los Angeles pathway to victory in game 4 is to solve its most obvious and easiest problem. It will then have to do it again in game 5 and in game 6…
Get back and stop the damn ball!!!
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