Have you ever joined an NCAA pool at work and wondered if there was an easy way to help you make your tournament picks for march madness? We will use the scatterplot below to explain how to make your tournament picks for March Madness.

The plot includes the top 75 teams in 3riple-threat’s college basketball poll. We use our composite score algorithm to select the top 75 teams and then we plotted the teams according to their offensive and defensive efficiency averages.

There are other analytics sites that track offensive and defensive efficiency which can be used in conjunction with this plot to give you a better picture of which teams have elite offenses and defenses.

Offensive efficiency is the average number of points scored per 100 possessions. The goal is to have an offensive efficiency above 100. Another way to think of offensive efficiency is points scored per possession. 1 point per possession is the desired threshold. Everything above 1 point per possession is good to elite offense. Everything below 1 point per possession is bad to awful offense.

Defensive efficiency is the average number of points scored on your defense per 100 possessions. The goal is to have a defensive efficiency below 100 or allow less than 1 point per possession.

Per 100 possessions is multiplying points per possession times 100.

Which teams are the elite teams?

Elite teams are the teams on the far right of the plot away from the y-axis. Offensive efficiency is on the x-axis and the more we move to the right, the higher the offensive efficiency average. We want teams with really good offenses to have good defenses and we are looking for teams with a defensive efficiency below 100.

The elite teams are the teams that are farthest on the right and closest to the x-axis. (Houston, Duke, Florida, Auburn, Maryland, Michigan State etc…)

You can evaluate how teams are being seated through bracketology.

When you make your tournament picks for march madness, you want to make sure that you advance teams that have both high offensive efficiency and a low defensive efficiency. Within the cluster of teams on the far right quadrant are blue bloods.

Blue bloods are teams that have a history of winning championships. The most noticeable blue blood is Duke. There are always one or two blue bloods in the final four.

One should take into consideration if the teams in that quadrant have an elite player. Elite players elevate their teams and can carry their teams deep into the tournament. A team with an elite player with an elite offense and defense is worth advancing deep into your tournament bracket.

There will be teams that have elite players but do not have an elite defense. The problem with these teams is if their offense is not clicking they also have problems stopping offenses. This is a formula for an upset.

Another issue is if the offensive efficiency is dependent on the elite player performing at their highest level. Foul trouble can take that elite player off the floor. There is a risk of upset and having your bracket busted by advancing a team deep into the tournament because they have an elite player but do not have a good defense.

The magic formulas is elite defense + elite offense + blue blood + elite player = Final Four.

High ranking teams that are possible upsets

March Madness is about the madness. Nothing defines madness like a Cinderella upsetting a high seed. Any team that is ranked in the top 10 and has a seed 1-4 that has an efficient offense but a defensive efficiency score above 100 is a team that is primed to be upset.

Some examples of teams in this category are Alabama Crimson Tide, Kentucky Wildcats and Oregon Ducks. Their defense can improve and dip below the 100 threshold for defensive efficiency but at the moment, every one of these teams has an efficient offense and an inefficient defense.

During the regular season the offense can carry these teams because they play at home or they play on the road in familiar settings. During March Madness teams can play at a location close to home but in an arena that they have not played in. Teams can play against a team that has an efficient defense which can suffocate the highly ranked offense.

Good and great defenses always travel and this provides a safety net for bad offensive nights. A team with an efficient offense and an inefficient defense has no safety net. The offense has to perform every night. A bad shooting night is all it takes for an upset.

College basketball teams that have an efficient offense and inefficient defense are one sided teams. The unbalance is difficult to overcome and as the Cinderella is able to hang around, the pressure shifts to the favored team causing them to tighten up.

Teams that can make deep march madness run but are out of the picture at the moment

The middle of the plot has a number of teams that can make a run in March Madness but are out of the picture at the moment. Texas A&M, Ole Miss Rebels, Michigan Wolverines and UCLA Bruins are teams that could make a run but will not be favored to do so.

The reason why I selected these teams is because they have efficient defenses and efficient offenses but the offenses are not elite.

These teams are balanced. They hang their hat on the defensive end and if their offense stalls, their defense can keep them in the game and carry them to the finish line.

Their offenses are efficient and have the ability to light up and play above their average. Texas A&M, Ole Miss, Michigan and UCLA have a built in safety net with their defense and their offenses can explode and catch on fire.

There is enough time in the season for teams to improve or hit a skid. The location of where these teams are is where you should look and select teams that will not be talked about as final four or national championship contenders but have the ability to make a deep run.

Teams likely to make an early march madness exit

Any team that is on the left side and closest to the y-axis with a defensive efficiency above 100 is a candidate to have an early march madness exit.

These teams have good offenses but are not top tier. They also have inefficient defenses. A shooting slump, too many turnover are both recipes for an early exit.

Some of the teams in this quadrant will not make the tournament but if they do, they will be an 8 or 9 seed or a double digit seed and they will have a difficult matchup.

What the plot does not account for

The majority of the teams on the plot come from major conferences. Major conferences have more at-large bids than mid-major and low-major conferences.

Mid-major and low-major conferences can count on the sole automatic bid that goes to the team that wins the conference tournament.

Mid-major and low-major conferences usually do not get more than one team into march madness.

We can expand the plot to include more teams which will include teams from these conferences but it is not a guarantee that these teams will make the tournament. The plot gets more messy and becomes more difficult to read with more teams added.

We will create a plot for mid and low major teams as a means to become familiar with these teams.

The plot does not account for injuries. Injuries have negative and positive impacts on a team.

An injury to a key player or an elite player late in the year, hurts the team. The team is without the players ability, skill and athleticism but it also affects rotations and team chemistry.

A player who was injured early in the season or in the previous season but has made a return late in the year, helps a team.