The first round of the 2024 Sunbelt Basketball Championship has taken place, and the second round begins tomorrow (March 7) in Pensacola Bay Center in Pensacola, Florida from March 5-11.  The tournament is sponsored by Hercules Tires and is broadcasted on ESPN+ and ESPN2. The top 4 seeds get a buy into the quarterfinals.   The tournament should come down to 1 seed Appalachian State vs 2 seed James Madison for the NCAA Tournament automatic bid. 

Who Should Win The Championship and Why

Appalachian State won the regular season title.  The biggest possible obstacle for Appalachian State is having to beat James Madison for a third time.  The two conference games between Appalachian State and James Madison were decided by two and three possessions.  Beating a team for the third is always a daunting task.  

Appalachian State will hang its hat on defense. App state has the conference best defense with an average defensive rating of 93.35.  Appalachian States two conference losses came against Troy and Texas State who are both on the opposite side of the bracket.  

James Madison

James Madison has the second-best defense in the conference with an average defensive rating of 94.64. James Madison’s biggest obstacle is getting past Appalachian State.  The problem against Appalachian State has been James Madison shooting.  In the first meeting James Madison was held to 38% eFG and a free-throw rate of 9% which is 15% below James Madison’s average.  

James Madison shot the ball better in their second game against Appalachian State but a 46% eFG is average and 9% below James Madison’s average.  To beat Appalachian State, James Madison must reach its average in eFG, turnover rate, rebound rate and free-throw rate.  If James Madison does not shoot the ball well, they must rebound the ball above their rebound rate average to offset the average to bad shooting by generating more possessions.  

TROY

Troy finished third in the regular season with a conference record of 13-5.  Troy has a win against Appalachian State in early January. 

The win against Appalachian State is a product of brutal math in which Troy did not shoot the ball well but rebounded the hell out of the ball and won the turnover margin giving Troy ten more possessions than Appalachian State.  

Troy has four conference losses against South Alabama, Southern Miss and Arkansas State and Texas State. South Alabama and Arkansas State are on the other side of the bracket, but Troy could face Southern Miss in the quarterfinals if Southern Miss beats Texas State in the second round.  

The problem for Troy is two-fold.  Troy must get by Southern Miss or Texas State and not be upset which has happened four times this season.  Troy may also have to beat James Madison in the semifinals and Appalachian State in the finals.  

An issue against Southern Miss was a rebound rate of 22%.  Texas State beat Troy in the last game of the regular season.  Troy had problems rebounding the ball against Texas State and had a rebound rate of 21%.  

Troy must attack the glass against either Texas State or Southern Miss.  The pathway past James Madison and Appalachian State might be the same as what Troy did to beat Appalachian State in early January by outrebounding them and taking care of the ball.  

DARKHORSE

Texas State finished tenth with a conference record of 7-11.  Texas State has wins over Southern Miss, Troy and Appalachian State.  Southern Miss and Troy are in Texas State’s path and to get to Appalachian State, Texas State must beat James Madison.  

The season long problems for Texas State are turnover and shooting.  A defensive rating of 100.93 is not good enough to consistently stop opponents and to upset Southern Miss, Troy, James Madison, and Appalachian State.  Texas State must get to the free-throw line and take care of the ball.  

March Madness means its Cinderella season and Texas State sits on the border where if they were to have some magic pixie dust sprinkled on them, they could go on a run.  Texas State’s four factors are on the border of average and good.  

If we are looking for a dark horse than going with a team that has beaten most of the teams on its path to the championship and sits on the border of the four advanced metrics needed to go on a heater.  The team that fits the criteria is Texas State.